Election analysis: Gradually turning blue in Rappahannock County
Election Analysis & Commentary
By James P. Gannon
Is Rappahannock County turning blue?
That’s “blue” as in Democratic blue, as opposed to Republican red–which in recent decades at least has been the historic coloration of election results here in this rural, conservative, tradition-bound county. But Tuesday’s election results in the county raise the possibility that Rappahannock County is emulating Northern Virginia in gradually turning more and more inclined to vote Democratic–a blue enclave in a surrounding sea of Republican red.
Unlike any other county surrounding us, Rappahannock County gave a majority of its votes to Democratic challenger Jim Webb over Republican incumbent Sen. George Allen. Webb won 51.6% of the county’s vote for U.S. Senate, carrying four of six precincts–losing to Allen only in Amissville and Chester Gap.
By contrast, Republican Allen carried every single surrounding county–Culpeper, Fauquier, Madison, Page, Warren–with a minimum of 55% of the vote. For 2006, Rappahannock is the blue hole in the middle of this Piedmont doughnut.
Here’s another sign: Republican incumbent Congressman Eric Cantor, who cruised easily to a nearly two-to-one win over Democrat Jim Nachman despite the national trend toward Democrats, couldn’t even muster up a clear majority in Rappahannock County.
Cantor received 1,668 votes in Rappahannock County, only 76 votes more than his little-known Democratic challenger from Richmond. That left Cantor with 49.97% of the vote in our county, compared with his 64% share of the vote in his whole district. By this measure, Rappahannock looks a lot more blue than the rest of the Congressional district.
Admittedly, 2006 turned out to be a lousy year to be running as a Republican, but it seems there’s more at work in Rappahannock County than simply the dynamics of this election year. A hint came when Democrat Tim Kaine carried the county in his successful campaign for governor in 2005.
It’s becoming clear that the Democrats have established important strongholds in the county. The voting precincts of Washington, Flint Hill and Sperryville have been friendly to Democrats in recent elections, including Tuesday’s voting. Amissville and Chester Gap are the red zones of Republicanism in county elections, and Scrabble tends to be a toss-up.
One factor in the trend is that local Democrats appear to be working much harder at winning elections in Rappahannock County than the local Republicans. Have you noticed how visible and active the local Democratic organization has been in the last few years, compared to the low-profile Republicans? Every other week, it seems, the county Democratic Committee is sponsoring an auction or a picnic or a movie at The Theatre in Little Washington, or simply getting together at the Library to talk politics.
“It’s an incredibly active Democratic party–they never even stop to take a breath,” noted Mary Ann Kuhn, a former editor of the local newspaper and Washington bed-and-breakfast owner. “They are out there on the Fourth of July with a picnic, and hosting auctions at the Fire Hall, and so many things.”
“I think the Democratic party has come alive in Rappahannock,” agreed Linda Dietel, secretary of the county Democratic committee. “It’s grown and grown and grown,” she added, noting that “we have 25 to 30 members at every (committee) meeting.” She credits local Democrats Ben Jones, who ran for Congress, and Jim Blubaugh, who ran for House of Delegates, with energizing the local party in recent years, even though both lost.
The local Republican organization–if there is one–seems virtually invisible in comparison. If years of GOP dominance in the county has bred complacency or apathy, Tuesday’s county results constitute a wake-up call for local Republicans.
A telling contrast came in the visits of the two Senate candidates to the county this fall. Democrat Webb was hailed on Oct. 1 at a Harris Hollow rally hosted by Ben Jones and Alma Viator that was well publicized in advance, well organized, and pulled in a crowd exceeding 400 enthusiastic supporters from Rappahannock and surrounding counties.
Senator Allen dropped by Rappahannock on Oct. 28, but hardly anyone knew it until he had gone. With virtually no advance publicity, it seemed almost a stealth visit, under the radar. The Washington Post, which had a reporter trailing Allen, reported he spent 12 minutes at the private function hosted by Jim and Demaris Miller at their home–a drop-by on a whirlwind, all-day auto tour.
A deeper, demographic change may be behind the “blue-ing” of Rappahannock County. A slow but steady in-migration of well-off, well-educated, urban expatriates from places like Alexandria, Arlington, Washington, DC and its Maryland suburbs is changing the makeup of the county. These people tend to be more liberal, more likely to vote Democratic, than the indigenous population. To oversimplify a bit, the “come heres” are blue, the “been heres” are red.
Rappahannock is approaching, if it has not already reached, a political tipping-point. Perhaps its a purple place now, a nearly even mix of red and blue, but the blue streak seems to be running deeper into the county’s veins. It’s not a safe place for Republicans to run any more. It has hardly turned rabidly liberal–notice that the Constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage won 56% approval in the county–but it is politically up-for-grabs now, and the more active party is winning.
-- James P. GannonComments
Comment from RBBeattie
Time: November 22, 2006, 10:35 am
Jim Gannon’s remarks are valid and timely. The Republicans, it seems to me, suffer from the problem that people have a hard time being able to declare “Yeah, that’s important to me. I am going to make time to contribute to the birth of a rejuvinated party, however!” Most people are very busy, and those are hard words to find.
We need new blood, and sometimes we are so disorganized that the names of new volunteers don’t even get into the right hands.
My fear is that just as Republican presidential candidates cannot win the presidency without carrying Ohio, so too statewide Republican candidates in the Old Dominion cannot carry the commonwealth withour carrying Rappahannock County. So our problem really needs fixing!
Please mark your calendars for St. Patrick’s Day. The annual Rappahannock Republican Ronald Reagan dinner will be that day. We will wax nostalgic, have a good time, and, perhaps, get energized.
–Robert Beattie
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