RappVoice in Iowa: As the presidential campaign frenzy peaks, we see momentum with Obama and McCain
By James P. Gannon
DES MOINES–A week spent in Iowa as the Democratic and Republican candidates sprint toward the first important verdict of the presidential campaign of 2008 is like watching a 12-ring circus with no ringmaster.
A dozen presidential candidates raced back and forth across the frozen Iowa landscape, sometimes almost bumping into each other in small towns like Pella and Indianola. In this capital city, political junkies could often attend three candidate appearances each day. Never have so many presidential candidates spent so much time in such remote places chasing so few votes.
As Editor of The Des Moines Register for ten years, I oversaw the news coverage of three Iowa caucus presidential contests, but none of those compared in intensity, duration, spending or potential impact with the race that is about to reach its finish line this week. On Iowa TV stations last week, three or four competing candidate commercials often ran consecutively, while the phone at my son’s home rang several times a day with automated “robo-call” messages from the candidates.
After watching the action, I came away with several impressions:
- In the Democratic race, the improbable appears on the verge of besting the inevitable. Hillary Clinton’s campaign is formidable, but her support peaked in the fall and then flattened; the more she exposed herself to Iowans, the less certain seemed her victory here. Hillary does not wear well. She could still win, but the late momentum in Iowa clearly is with Barack Obama, the improbable dreamer who came out of nowhere to become the JFK-like phenomenon of the moment.
- In the Republican race, while the folksy Mike Huckabee of Arkansas and the pinstriped-and-polished Mitt Romney mud-wrestle for first place, the caucus surprise may be the revival of the John McCain campaign, left for dead last summer. McCain appeared energized and on the rebound last week as a new crisis in Pakistan and the progress of the military “surge” strategy in Iraq made his experience and credentials in foreign affairs attractive to more Iowa Republicans.
- Several candidates won’t long survive poor showings in Iowa. Among the Democrats, Senators Joe Biden of Delaware and Chris Dodd of Connecticut, and former Gov. Bill Richardson of New Mexico seem near the end of their campaigns. On the GOP side, when the music stops, there may be no chairs for the listless and grumpy Fred Thompson, and the little-seen and not-much-heeded Rudy Giuliani. Ron Paul, darkest of horses, could surprise in the “better than expected” category.
The losers will limp into New Hampshire, hoping to rebound in the state’s Jan. 8 primary, but the extremely brief, five-day interval means the Iowa winners will monopolize media and momentum, and the also-rans will be gasping for oxygen.
My friend David Yepsen, Iowa’s top political reporter, says the caucuses provide only three tickets out of Iowa: First class, coach and standby. Everyone else is left on the tarmac.
Finishing first in Iowa doesn’t guarantee a party’s nomination. Republican George Bush won here in 1980 but lost the nomination to Ronald Reagan, who skipped Iowa and came in fourth (Giuliani, take note); Richard Gephardt placed first in 1988 but eventually Michael Dukakis (who finished third) got the Democratic nod.
Placing second in Iowa can be either a springboard or a lead weight. In 2004, John Edwards’ strong second place finish (to nominee John Kerry) lifted his campaign and won him the running-mate spot on the Democratic ticket. But an expected winner who finishes second is damaged. Second would be a loss for Hillary Clinton or Mitt Romney, who expended enormous resources in Iowa. It would be a huge plus for McCain, who might benefit even from a strong third, given his chance to capitalize on this with a win five days later in New Hampshire.
But all that is speculation, and if the Iowa caucuses have proved anything in the last 35 years, it is that there’s usually a surprise, like Democrat Howard Dean’s screaming implosion in 2004, or TV commentator Pat Buchanan’s strong second to Bob Dole in 1996.
What are Iowa’s possible surprises for 2008? I don’t know, but here are my nominees: 1) a last-minute fade by Huckabee; 2) a surge by McCain; 3) a third-place finish for Clinton; 4) signs of a pulse in Fred Thompson. None of these is a prediction, especially the last.
My visit to Iowa last week was more family-oriented than political; my wife Joan and I flew out to spend a week with son Chris, who is a news photographer for The Des Moines Register (that’s Chris in the photo shooting a Fred Thompson event). But it was an opportunity for sampling the political fever and seeing candidates up close.
In a suburban Des Moines Elks lodge, I watched with some surprise the apparent vigor of John McCain’s resurrected campaign. The white-haired, 71-year-old Arizona senator fairly bounded on to a small speaker’s platform in the center of the room, looking fit and trim and speaking with energy and conviction. The room was packed with middle-aged to older voters, many of them veterans, who listened intently as McCain punched the air for emphasis and delivered his message stressing the war on terror, cuts in government spending, and his record on national security and foreign affairs.
It was the morning of the assassination of Benazir Bhutto in Pakistan, which underlined what an unstable and dangerous world will face the next president. McCain spoke knowledgeably about Pakistan, its politics and dangers. Bhutto’s murder is a win for “radical Islamic extremists” in that country, McCain said. “This is a tense and difficult time….I knew Benazir Bhutto, I’ve met with President Musharraf. I know the players and I know the best way to handle the situation,” he told the Iowans.
Norma Shepherd of Madrid, IA, sitting next to me, was impressed. Before McCain arrived, I asked her if she already was committed to McCain. No, she said, “but he is on my short list.” After McCain spoke, she had made up her mind. “He convinced me,” she said. “It’s his experience on national security…..It’s the most important thing at times like this.”
Later that afternoon, Joan and I drove 30 miles north of the capital city to the rural town of Nevada (pop. 6,500) where we found a big, enthusiastic crowd awaiting an appearance by Barack Obama at an elementary school. About 400 people were packed into an assembly area, clapping rhythmically to rock music as they awaited the Illinois senator. The crowd was decidedly younger and more female than McCain’s audience hours earlier: lots of collage-age kids, plus women in their late 20s and 30s, fewer gray heads.
The tall, slender Obama–the Tiger Woods of politics–swept into the assembly with his Secret Service retinue, bouncing to the rock beat amid explosions of applause. Before a banner proclaiming “Change We Can Believe In,” Obama delivered his gospel of a New Day, explaining that he launched this “unlikely journey to change America” because of what Martin Luther King Jr. called “the fierce urgency of now.”
Some people wondered, he said, why he didn’t wait until he had more experience on the national stage. His response was that the nation’s most urgent problems simply won’t wait.
“We can’t wait for universal health care,” he said. “We can’t wait to deal with global warming. We can’t wait to end the war in Iraq. We can’t wait!”
Some might say it’s a gamble to elect someone so new, so untested. His reply: “The real gamble in this election is playing the same old Washington game with the same old Washington players–and expected the results to be any different.” This is his response to Hillary Clinton’s argument that she’s more ready for the White House because of her years as Bill Clinton’s First Lady and her Senate experience.
Obama presents himself as the one candidate who would be able to break away from the old Washington politics, bring people together, and get big things done. “We are not as divided as our political parties suggest,” he said. He will be able to win support from independent voters and “disillusioned Republicans” than would the divisive Hillary, he suggests. “That’s how we’ll win in November.”
It’s a powerful and appealing message, delivered by a charismatic messenger who makes you want to believe it’s all possible. “We have already beaten the odds the cynics said we couldn’t beat” in taking on Clinton, he claimed. “In seven days, what was improbable has a chance to defeat what was called inevitable…..This is the moment. It’s our turn. This is our time!”
On the face of one young woman, I saw tears, and on many others, a kind of afterglow that spoke of sex appeal. There’s no doubt Obama had the audience in the palm of his hand, but his challenge is to get them out on Thursday night in the dark and the cold to the church basements, fire halls, schools and living rooms where Iowans will gather to stand up and state their presidential preferences.
The Register’s Iowa Poll, published New Year’s Day, had Obama leading Clinton by 32% to 25%, with John Edwards virtually tied with Hillary at 24%. Obama’s lead in that poll, however, depended on a large segment of political independents who declared they plan to vote in Democratic caucus meetings; if these non-regulars fail to show up, Obama’s supposed lead evaporates.
That same poll had Huckabee leading the Republicans with 32%, followed by Mitt Romney with 26% and McCain in third with 13%. But only about one in ten of Iowa’s registered voters show up at these party gatherings across the state, and it’s notoriously difficult for pollsters to determine who will actually come out that night.
That’s what makes Iowa so unpredictable–and so important. By Friday morning, the 2008 race for the White House will be reshaped. If you are into politics as spectator sport, it doesn’t get any better than this.
-- James P. Gannon
Comments
Comment from shimane
Time: January 2, 2008, 2:51 pm
Great observations. I, particularly, am interested in the mention of robo calls to your Son’s home.
According to the PEW Research Center, 81% of Iowa voters received robo calls in November. Our members are receiving between 5-10 calls a day.
We have launched the nation’s first non-partisan, non-profit Political ‘do not call” registry.
Would love your take.
http://www.stoppoliticalcalls.org/index.php
Shaun Dakin
CEO
Comment from farmfem
Time: January 3, 2008, 7:29 am
I’m interested in your comment that Obama arrived with his Secret Service detail. Back in my day a candidate didn’t get Secret Service protection until after he or she proved to be a viable candidate by winning, placing or showing in a primary or caucus. Hillary would have a detail by virtue of being a former First Lady. Things may well have changed. I haven’t been in the game in nearly ten years.
Thanks for your piece. It brought back memories of a cold place, in December anyway, with wonderfully warm people.
Cynthia Johnson
Comment from James P. Gannon
Time: January 3, 2008, 9:37 am
It’s true that most candidates at this stage of the campaign do not have Secret Service protection. Back in May, 2007, Obama was given protection by order of Homeland Security Sec. Michael Chertoff, who had been contacted by Democratic Congressional leaders expressing concern for Obama’s safety. Media reported at that time that, while there was no specific, credible threat to Obama’s life, the large crowds he was attracting and certain “hate mail” and internet commentary had triggered concerns for his safety.
Sen. Hillary Clinton has Secret Service protection by virtue of her status as a former First Lady. The other candidates are not protected at this stage, but they may request protection if they feel they need it. The Secret Service has some discretion to decide when a presidential candidate needs protection. We can expect that once the early-voting states sort out the field and the likely nominees are selected, those two candidates will receive protection.
–JPG
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